Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1430% implied yield on the "yes" side versus just 14% on the "no" side, yet trades at only 9¢ with zero 24-hour volume and $14.5M open interest, suggesting the low price reflects genuine skepticism about 10+ countries being struck rather than illiquidity. The 258-day timeframe to resolution and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled into a consensus view, though the high cliff risk index (10) warns that geopolitical escalation could rapidly reprrice this tail event. The resolution criteria's incomplete definition (text cuts off mid-sentence regarding embassies/consulates) introduces ambiguity that could complicate settlement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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