Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 869% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 23% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues strike probability relative to historical US military activity patterns.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 869% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 23% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues strike probability relative to historical US military activity patterns. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $13.6M open interest indicates illiquidity despite substantial capital at risk, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. With 258 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, the market faces moderate tail risk from geopolitical escalation, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions don't reflect elevated near-term conflict expectations.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692 yes 100