Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
This contract is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$359
Best sibling
—
Ticker
KXPOLIO-26-0
Market snapshot
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?. The displayed quote is 28¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $359. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year
Family rank
—
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
28¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jan 31, 2027
24h volume
$359
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Venue identifier: KXPOLIO-26-0. Family volume: $359.
Price history
28¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 27¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If there are above 0 cases of polio in the United States in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
Identifier
KXPOLIO-26-0
Event family
Related outcomes.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$359
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year 26¢
Current share
100%
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year
kalshi · KXPOLIO-26-0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 28% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.