Yes · KXRECSSNBER-27
Yes is priced at 43¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 40¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
43¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yes
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$552
Identifier
KXRECSSNBER-27
May 28, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$535
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 31, 2028
Family volume
$552
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 43¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 31, 2028
Identifier
KXRECSSNBER-27
Event family
KXRECSSNBER-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$552
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Yes 40¢
Current share
100%
Yes
kalshi · KXRECSSNBER-27
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 43% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.