Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
This contract is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$38K
Best sibling
—
Ticker
KXPOLIOELIM-30
Market snapshot
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030 in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?. The displayed quote is 10¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $197. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030
Family rank
—
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
10¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jan 1, 2030
24h volume
$197
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Venue identifier: KXPOLIOELIM-30. Family volume: $38K.
Price history
10¢ current
+6¢Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXPOLIOELIM-30
Event family
This market.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$38K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030 10¢
Current share
100%
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030
kalshi · KXPOLIOELIM-30
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
scientific
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 10% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.