What is the current probability for "Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 31, 2028. 923 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1278.2% and 1.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2028. Toronto's 3¢ price reflects a heavily underweighted probability for a team with legitimate championship potential, generating an extreme 1271.5% implied yield for Yes holders despite solid $204k open interest.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $1,230.22·OI $225,250.19·Closes Oct 31, 2028·923d remaining

KXMLB-26-TOR

7-day price13 snapshots · 62 regime

4¢3¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 13

Analysis

4d ago

Toronto's 3¢ price reflects a heavily underweighted probability for a team with legitimate championship potential, generating an extreme 1271.5% implied yield for Yes holders despite solid $204k open interest. The zero spread and stable 928-day timeframe suggest this is a mispriced long-shot bet rather than a liquidity concern, though the modest $2.1k daily volume indicates limited trading activity to exploit the asymmetry. The 32 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around resolution mechanics, but the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market has settled at this discount level.

Resolution rules

If Toronto wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1278.2%

IY (No) 1.2%

Adj IY 639%

CRI 32

Overround -0.2%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1278.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	639%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:23:18 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLB-26-TOR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →