MLB Predictions
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$64K
10 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
876 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Atlanta
KXMLB-26-ATL
Cluster 2
Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: New York Y
KXMLB-26-NYY
Cluster 3
Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Los Angeles D
KXMLB-26-LAD
Cluster 4
Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Toronto
KXMLB-26-TOR
Cluster 5
Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Tampa Bay
KXMLB-26-TB
Cluster 6
Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Milwaukee
KXMLB-26-MIL
Cluster 7
Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Philadelphia
KXMLB-26-PHI
Cluster 8
Will Seattle win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Seattle win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Seattle
KXMLB-26-SEA
Cluster 9
Will Cleveland win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Cleveland win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Cleveland
KXMLB-26-CLE
Cluster 10
Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Chicago C
KXMLB-26-CHC
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects aggregated market expectations for a specific MLB championship outcome in 2026, currently showing disagreement between venues with Polymarket pricing 16 percentage points higher than Kalshi. The divergence suggests uncertainty about how to weigh available information: team composition, injury status, and regular-season performance through May. Trading volume concentrates on traditional contenders like Atlanta (11¢), New York Yankees (13¢), and Los Angeles Dodgers (30¢ on Polymarket), indicating markets are pricing based on pre-season roster strength and early-season results. The probability would move upward if the relevant team demonstrates sustained winning performance, maintains key player health, and shows statistical advantages in metrics like run differential. Conversely, injuries, trades, or consistent underperformance would pressure it lower. Resolution occurs in October 2026 when the World Series concludes.
- ›The target team's win-loss record and playoff position as of mid-season (June-July cutoff) versus consensus preseason projections
- ›Injury status of star players and whether key roster additions or subtractions occur via trade deadline (July 31, 2026)
- ›Polymarket's 16-point premium over Kalshi suggests pricing differences based on available information; verification requires checking if one venue has access to more recent injury reports, trades, or performance data
- ›Trading volume concentration on higher-seeded favorites (Atlanta, Yankees, Dodgers) versus the target team indicates relative market confidence tiers
- ›Historical correlation between May performance and October outcomes for comparable rosters in similar competitive windows
What moved the line
- Jun 6Milwaukee↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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