MLB Predictions
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$222K
10 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
780 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Chicago” vs “Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Chicago
Cluster 2
Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Milwaukee
KXMLB-26-MIL
Cluster 3
Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: New York Y
KXMLB-26-NYY
Cluster 4
Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Los Angeles D
KXMLB-26-LAD
Cluster 5
Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Philadelphia
KXMLB-26-PHI
Cluster 6
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Atlanta
KXMLB-26-ATL
Cluster 7
Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Tampa Bay
KXMLB-26-TB
Cluster 8
Will Houston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Houston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Houston
KXMLB-26-HOU
Cluster 9
Will Boston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
Will Boston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Boston
KXMLB-26-BOS
Analysis
This 9% probability reflects the market's assessment of an individual team winning the 2026 MLB championship, based on aggregated contract prices across multiple prediction markets. The current pricing suggests substantial uncertainty about which team will capture the title, with the Los Angeles Dodgers commanding the highest individual probability at 31 cents, while other contenders range from 3 to 8 cents. Market probabilities for championship outcomes typically shift based on team performance during the regular season, injuries to key players, and playoff positioning as teams compete for postseason berths. The main catalyst affecting these probabilities will be the regular season's progression and the eventual playoff bracket composition in October, which determines which teams can advance to the World Series.
- ›Team win-loss records and playoff seeding will directly impact market probabilities as they determine postseason matchups and path to the championship
- ›Injuries to star players or key roster changes during the season would shift individual team probabilities by altering perceived competitive strength
- ›Regular season performance trends and streak outcomes have historically driven short-term probability fluctuations for contending teams
- ›Current 24-hour trading volume concentrated in the $12,000-$16,000 range suggests moderate but sustained market interest in championship outcome contracts
- ›The Los Angeles Dodgers contract trading at 31 cents versus other teams at 3-8 cents indicates market consensus that a small number of teams are considered significantly more likely to win
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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