SimpleFunctions

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027 is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

13¢ current

5¢
10¢20¢
May 8, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Outcome

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$58K

Identifier

0x9c414cb6...d667

Jun 8, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 25m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 25m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

13¢

Spread

24h volume

$13

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$58K

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 13¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
12¢5.1K
11¢386
10¢570
7¢6
6¢28
4¢1.2K
3¢2.6K
2¢4.4K
AskSize
13¢25
16¢15
17¢66
18¢650
23¢7
27¢38
28¢55
29¢400

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x9c414cb6…d667

SF Signal
SF Index
593.20
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 58¢, -45¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$58K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027 13¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1186.4%
26.5%
Adj IY
593%
7

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.