SimpleFunctions

Trump Airport · Will Trump say "

Trump Airport is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will Trump say ".

Price history

7¢ current

21¢
0¢25¢50¢
May 20, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If Trump Airport, or a plural or possessive form of Trump Airport, is stated by Donald Trump after April 1, 2026 at 12:00pm ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Trump Airport

Rank

#1 of 7

Leader

Trump Airport 5¢

Range

3¢-5¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-AIRP

Jun 19, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

7¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 19, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$113

Family rank

#1 of 7

7 outcomes · Will Trump say "

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 6¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
5¢1
2¢1.0K
AskSize
6¢58
7¢177
11¢75
12¢150
16¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Trump Airport, or a plural or possessive form of Trump Airport, is stated by Donald Trump after April 1, 2026 at 12:00pm ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-AIRP

SF Signal
SF Index
28464.13
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

56928.3%

IY (No)

157.7%

Adj IY

28464%

CRI

19

Overround

-0.7%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

political

Full indicator table

56928.3%
157.7%
Adj IY
28464%
19
Overround
-0.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.