Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 5% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Trump Dollar / Trump Bill
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Trump Airport
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
12 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Will Trump say "Trump Dollar / Trump Bill" before Jul 1, 2026?: Trump Dollar / Trump Bill
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-DOLL
Will Trump say "Trump University" before Jul 1, 2026?: Trump University
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-UNIV
Will Trump say "Trump Airport" before Jul 1, 2026?: Trump Airport
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-AIRP
Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026?: Fort Trump
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-FORT
Will Trump say "Mount Trump" before Jul 1, 2026?: Mount Trump
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-MOUN
Will Trump say "Trump Arc / Arc de Trump" before Jul 1, 2026?: Trump Arc / Arc de Trump
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-ARC
Will Trump say "Trump Tower" before Jul 1, 2026?: Trump Tower
KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-TOWE
Analysis
This contract estimates a 64% likelihood that Donald Trump will use the phrase 'Fort Trump' in public remarks before July 1, 2026. The probability reflects market participants' assessment of whether Trump will adopt this specific terminology in the roughly two-month window remaining. Trump's frequent public appearances and tendency to coin descriptive phrases support higher probabilities, but the specificity of 'Fort Trump' as a term—versus his more common rhetorical patterns—introduces genuine uncertainty. The contract will resolve based on verified public statements (speeches, interviews, social media posts) between now and the deadline. Market pricing suggests this is viewed as more likely than not, though far from certain. Resolution will occur automatically when either the phrase appears in a recorded statement or the deadline passes without it being used.
- ›Trump's historical frequency of coining and repeating branded or descriptive terms in public discourse
- ›Absence of recent documented usage of 'Fort Trump' specifically in Trump's recent public statements or policy discussions
- ›The narrow 59-day window remaining until expiration, limiting opportunities for the phrase to emerge organically
- ›Specificity of the exact phrase versus likelihood he uses similar terminology (e.g., 'Trump Fort' or 'The Fort')
- ›Market concentration at 64% suggests meaningful disagreement among traders about baseline probability
What moved the line
- Jun 18Trump Tower↓18pp23→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Trump Arc / Arc de Trump↓12pp24→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Trump Dollar / Trump Bill↓10pp27→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Trump Airport↓8pp13→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Trump Dollar / Trump Bill↓7pp17→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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