Will Trump visit China by May 15?
This contract is priced at 90¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 88¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
4
Family volume
$4.6M
Best sibling
May 31 94¢
Ticker
0x65f204a8…fdc7
Price history
90¢ current
+15¢Orderbook snapshot
88 / 89¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Mar 31, 2026
Identifier
0x65f204a8…fdc7
Event family
Will Trump visit China by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$4.6M
Outcomes
4
Highest price
June 30 96¢
Current share
17%
May 15
polymarket · 0x65f204a8ebbaa472d668cc4fdbe4dd45249405a7e0acea43b7930a216e5bfdc7
May 31
polymarket · 0xcd215b8330a35098a1a3f6c46b6492347edb5e74c1e0a95ac4d3d54aece6c262
June 30
polymarket · 0xaaacff0f7424b38e61ee5c5b2ea9d7335d0553eca2afb874267cd94c54a11925
May 8
polymarket · 0xd749f7f15df4d76e621fdc88eabe87198b535b8d49f5b3918bb562701feeb939
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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