December 31 · Will Trump visit Greenland by
December 31 is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
December 31
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
0x840fe260...2a98
Jun 7, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$579
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x840fe260…2a98
Event family
Will Trump visit Greenland by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
December 31 7¢
Current share
100%
December 31
polymarket · 0x840fe2606472a13ee62e3009a360af8be2576cd1d9dbcda8749e89eed5d02a98
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.