Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?

The market has experienced significant recent volatility, declining from 21¢ to 17¢ over seven days with realized volatility of 1,197%, suggesting substantial uncertainty around Trump's stated interest in Greenland despite the low baseline probability. The extreme implied yield of 698% on the Yes side combined with a 7¢ spread and modest $3.75 daily volume indicates thin liquidity and potential mispricing, though the 255-day timeframe and neutral regime score (0.409) suggest the market hasn't yet fully incorporated new information. The high info arrival rate of 2.5 events per hour and cliff risk index of 5 point to this as an active, sentiment-driven market where geopolitical developments could rapidly shift pricing.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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