Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026 is priced at 41¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 40¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
41¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is photographed or videotaped wearing a Yarmulke/Kippah at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Outcome
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
0x206dd42a...bb1d
May 27, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is photographed or videotaped wearing a Yarmulke/Kippah at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x206dd42a…bb1d
Event family
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026 41¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.