SimpleFunctions

Before 2028 · KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28

Before 2028 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

55¢ current

+2¢
40¢50¢60¢
May 20, 2026Jun 18, 2026

Contract brief

If two SpaceX Starships (any kind of Starship – e.g. tankers, depots, testing vehicles) successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before 2028

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$242

Identifier

KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28

Jun 18, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

55¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 18, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

52¢

Ask

56¢

Spread

24h volume

$242

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Family volume

$242

Orderbook snapshot

52 / 56¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
52¢51
51¢637
50¢185
49¢5
48¢505
AskSize
56¢510
64¢9
65¢100
69¢1
70¢1

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If two SpaceX Starships (any kind of Starship – e.g. tankers, depots, testing vehicles) successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Identifier

KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28

SF Signal
SF Index
70.32
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$242

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Before 2028 52¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

59.9%

IY (No)

70.3%

Adj IY

70%

CRI

1

RV

367%

VR

4.65

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

scientific

Full indicator table

59.9%
70.3%
Adj IY
70%
1
RV
367%
VR
4.65
IAR
1.2/h

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.