Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
510 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada” vs “Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada
Cluster 2
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?: Before 2028
KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28
Cluster 3
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 4
Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 5
Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Analysis
This contract asks whether at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by the end of April 2026. The 33% probability reflects uncertainty about shipping volumes through one of the world's most critical chokepoints. Key drivers include global crude oil demand, geopolitical tensions affecting the region, and seasonal shipping patterns. Daily transit data is published by maritime tracking services, providing a clear resolution metric. Higher oil prices and economic growth would increase tanker traffic, while regional conflicts or sanctions could disrupt normal patterns. The contract essentially bets on whether peak daily throughput will reach a specific threshold within the specified window.
- ›Average daily Hormuz transits typically range 20-25 vessels; the threshold is achievable under normal conditions but not guaranteed on any given day
- ›Regional geopolitical stability directly affects shipping confidence; escalation or de-escalation would materially shift transit patterns
- ›Seasonal demand cycles peak in certain quarters; April positioning relative to global demand cycles influences probability
- ›Published AIS and maritime authority data will definitively resolve the contract; no ambiguity in measurement methodology
- ›Oil price levels and economic growth forecasts through Q2 2026 correlate with tanker utilization rates and vessel routing decisions
What moved the line
- Aug 8PSD↓11pp30→19¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9PL↓6pp21→15¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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