Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$243
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
562 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028” vs “Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?: Before 2028
KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28
Cluster 2
Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada
Cluster 3
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 4
Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 5
Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
What moved the line
- Jun 15PSD↑29pp1→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15União Progressista↑26pp1→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15PL↑19pp1→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Before 2028↓9pp61→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Before 2028↓4pp52→48¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 6% · 0d
- Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iranlast 25% · 0d
- Iran military action against ___ by April 30last 19% · 0d
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30last 37% · 0d
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iranlast 12% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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