Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes contract trading at 0¢ despite a 299.6% implied yield, suggesting near-zero liquidity ($0 open interest, $0 volume) is preventing rational price discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes contract trading at 0¢ despite a 299.6% implied yield, suggesting near-zero liquidity ($0 open interest, $0 volume) is preventing rational price discovery. The 10¢ spread and dramatic 7-day rally from 85¢ to 90¢ on the No side indicate the market is heavily skewed toward expecting a significant income decline, though the astronomical 12135% risk-adjusted yield and maximum cliff risk (9/10) signal this pricing is unreliable given the contract expires in just 14 days before the March employment data release.
Resolution rules
If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above -0.3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T-0.3 yes 100