Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.1%?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $323 open interest, making the 67¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread.
Analysis
The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $323 open interest, making the 67¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The annualized yield of 1153.9% for Yes positions reflects the short 14-day timeframe to expiry rather than genuine expected returns, and the sharp 12¢ price rally over seven days (58¢ to 70¢) may indicate thin-market volatility rather than meaningful conviction. With March 2026 personal income data not yet released and historical MoM readings typically ranging 0.2-0.5%, the 67% probability appears reasonably calibrated to baseline expectations, though the negligible liquidity limits confidence in execution at posted prices.
Resolution rules
If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above 0.1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T0.1 yes 100