Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.6%?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 0¢ Yes price implying zero probability despite a 9¢ bid-ask spread and an absurd 21,868.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the No side is severely overvalued.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 0¢ Yes price implying zero probability despite a 9¢ bid-ask spread and an absurd 21,868.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the No side is severely overvalued. With zero volume and open interest, there is virtually no liquidity to execute trades, making this a dead market that likely reflects a data error or failed market initialization rather than genuine price discovery. The 14-day countdown to expiry combined with the Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicates elevated execution risk, and historical US personal income MoM data averaging around 0.3-0.4% makes a 0.6%+ print plausible but not certain, so the true probability should be meaningfully above zero.
Resolution rules
If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above 0.6, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T0.6 yes 100