Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.7%?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above 0.7%?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 9¢ spread, suggesting no genuine trading activity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 9¢ spread, suggesting no genuine trading activity. The 0¢ bid price implies a near-zero probability of personal income growth exceeding 0.7% MoM in March 2026, yet the astronomical 87,058.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing rather than informed conviction—this yield is economically nonsensical and reflects the market's inability to find counterparties. With only 14 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be a dead market that should be avoided due to execution risk and unreliable pricing signals.
Resolution rules
If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above 0.7, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T0.7 yes 100