SimpleFunctions

USA score at least 7 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

7+ goals is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside Will USA score at least.

Price history

20¢ current

+16¢
0¢10¢20¢
May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If USA records at least 7 goals during the group stage (including regulation and stoppage time) of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

7+ goals

Rank

#6 of 9

Leader

2+ goals 89¢

Range

3¢-89¢

Family volume

$45

Identifier

KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-7

May 28, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

20¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

20¢

Spread

24h volume

$7

Family rank

#6 of 9

9 outcomes · Will USA score at least

Closes

Jul 12, 2026

Family volume

$45

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 20¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
11¢1.0K
2¢1.1K
AskSize
20¢993
96¢5.0K
99¢81

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If USA records at least 7 goals during the group stage (including regulation and stoppage time) of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 12, 2026

Identifier

KXWCTEAMGOALS-26USA-7

SF Signal
SF Index
3293.90
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6587.8%

IY (No)

100.6%

Adj IY

3294%

CRI

8

Overround

2.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6587.8%
100.6%
Adj IY
3294%
8
Overround
2.1%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Technicalguide

Computing Liquidity Availability Score from the Orderbook

Step-by-step guide to computing the Liquidity Availability Score in TypeScript and Python, with edge cases for thin orderbooks, missing data, and the warm-cron coverage limitation.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.