Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $795k open interest, suggesting the $795k may be concentrated in a few large positions that lack counterparties for exit. The 33¢ price implies only a 33% probability of Cache returning to Valve's Active Duty pool within 74 days, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 1002.5% implied yield—a massive risk premium that likely reflects both the low base probability and the difficulty in finding buyers at this price. The 1592% realized volatility and 20¢ spread indicate significant uncertainty, though with zero recent trading activity, this price may be stale and unrepresentative of current market sentiment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Valve adds the map Cache to the official map pool by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Cache is added to the Active Duty pool, it must remain there continuously for at least 48 hours for this market to resolve to “Yes”. Temporary additions (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. If Cache is added after the deadline, this market will resolve to “No”, even if the addition was announced earlier. For the purpose of this market, “Valve” refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series. For the purpose of this market, the “official map pool” refers to the Active Duty map group in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), which consists of the maps eligible for both competitive matchmaking and professional tournaments. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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