Year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%
Yes is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
14¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yes
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXCOREUND-26DEC10-T2.2
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
12¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 10, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 10, 2026
Identifier
KXCOREUND-26DEC10-T2.2
Event family
KXCOREUND-26DEC10.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Yes 14¢
Current share
100%
Yes
kalshi · KXCOREUND-26DEC10-T2.2
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.475
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.