Will inflation hit the 2% target?

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45%

20 markets·Kalshi + Polymarket

Analysis

The CPI rose 3.29% annually as of March 2026, and prediction markets currently indicate a central expectation that inflation will rise by 0.4% to 0.5% for the month of April. There is a 94% probability that the monthly increase will exceed 0.3%, but only a 36% chance that it will climb above 0.5%.

›March CPI annual rate 3.29%
›April monthly rise 0.4%-0.5% expected
›94% probability of >0.3% monthly CPI
›36% probability of >0.5% monthly CPI
›Energy price volatility concerns

Contracts

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.3%

K$3K

96¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%

K$2K

45¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.4%

K$1K

57¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.8%

K$1K

11¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.9%

K$821

3¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.5%

K$771

49¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.2%

K$693

87¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5%

K$541

78¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.6%

K$520

38¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 2.8%

K$494

60¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.4%

K$492

62¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7%

K$446

23¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.8%

K$270

17¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.6%

K$267

57¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.0%

K$120

88¢

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.0%

K$104

9¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 2.6%

K$91

27¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.9%

K$51

22¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.6%

K$45

40¢

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.7%

K$18

38¢

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