Will inflation hit the 2% target?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Dec 10, 2026
108 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 15% of their title tokens — “Will CPI rise more than” vs “Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will CPI rise more than
Cluster 2
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?: Yes
KXCOREUND-26DEC10-T2.2
Analysis
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) most recently rose 3.3% year-over-year, and prediction markets indicate a 58% probability that CPI will increase by more than 0.3% for the month of August 2026. While inflation pressures persist, markets currently see only a 3% chance that core CPI will exceed headline CPI for the month. Overall, expectations remain anchored, with a 22% chance of a monthly increase exceeding 0.4%.
- ›3.3% YoY CPI
- ›58% chance of >0.3% August inflation
- ›3% chance core exceeds headline CPI
- ›22% chance of >0.4% August inflation
What moved the line
- Aug 19Above 0.4%↓52pp53→1¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above -0.1%↑29pp46→75¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 0.4%↑19pp1→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Yes↓7pp13→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 42% · 0d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 28% · 0d
- Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%last 68% · 5d
- Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%last 88% · 24d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%last 80% · 24d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In recession
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.