Will inflation hit the 2% target?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 5 contracts. Kalshi at 43%, Polymarket at 3% — a 40pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
3 contracts
Polymarket
3%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
40pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 12, 2027
219 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 43¢ · Polymarket 3¢ · 40pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (3¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 15% of their title tokens — “Will CPI rise more than” vs “Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will CPI rise more than
Cluster 2
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?: Yes
KXCOREUND-26DEC10-T2.2
Cluster 3
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026: 3.00% to 3.49%
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026: 3.00% to 3.49%
0x039aec…5edb
Cluster 4
India Annual Inflation 2026: 2.25% to 2.99%
India Annual Inflation 2026: 2.25% to 2.99%
0x8aee74…4738
Analysis
The core CPI month-over-month increase for May 2026 is most likely centered around 0.2%, with prediction markets placing a 63% probability on that outcome. Expectations remain subdued for significant spikes, as there is a only a 4% chance for a 0.4% increase and a marginal 1% chance for a 0.5% increase.
- ›Most likely 0.2% MoM core CPI
- ›Tail risk of 0.4%+ remains low
- ›Current 0.2% market-implied peak
- ›Core inflation stabilization
What moved the line
- Jun 4Yes↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22.25% to 2.99%↓3pp4→1¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in recession
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 3d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 6d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 7d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
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Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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