Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is priced at 64¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 63¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
64¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$222K
Identifier
0x1e285f49...c2d2
Jun 19, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Family volume
$222K
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Identifier
0x1e285f49…c2d2
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$222K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup 64¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 64% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.