FIFA World Cup Group G Winner
Leader sits at 63% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Belgium
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Egypt
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
9 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Group G Winner
Analysis
This 80% probability represents the likelihood that one specific team will finish first in Group G of the FIFA World Cup. The probability is driven by the composition of Group G teams, their recent form, and historical performance in international competitions. Teams ranked higher in world rankings and with stronger recent results command higher prices. The main resolution catalyst is the completion of Group G matches during the tournament, currently scheduled for late 2026. Shifts in this probability would reflect updated injury reports, pre-tournament friendlies that alter perceived strength, or significant changes in team composition through qualifying or last-minute roster decisions.
- ›Current market structure shows leader at 80% with runner-up at 76%, indicating two teams assessed as closely competitive within Group G
- ›Polymarket volume varies significantly across contracts ($453–$2437 24h), suggesting differential confidence in different outcomes and potential liquidity constraints
- ›The top contract (Japan, 27¢) competes across multiple group predictions, indicating traders assess probabilities across overlapping tournament segments
- ›Absence of real-time injury data or recent official roster announcements means market prices reflect historical standings and qualification-phase form rather than tournament-specific updates
- ›Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure concentrates probability mass on leading teams rather than distributing it evenly across all Group G participants
What moved the line
- Jun 15Egypt↑6pp17→23¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Belgium↓4pp71→67¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Belgium↓3pp67→64¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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