World Cup Group G Winner
Leader sits at 63% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Belgium
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Egypt
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
9 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Group G Winner
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Belgium finishes first in their World Cup group ahead of three other competitors. Belgium's 68% implied probability reflects expectations based on FIFA rankings, recent performance, and group composition. The main factors supporting this position are Belgium's historical strength and perceived squad quality relative to rivals. Factors that could shift this probability include pre-tournament roster changes, injuries to key players, or updated assessments of opponent capabilities after qualification rounds. The outcome will be determined by the group's matches, which are scheduled during the tournament's group stage. Market participants are pricing in Belgium as the clear favorite, though Egypt at 19% represents meaningful uncertainty about whether Belgium will definitively top the group.
- ›Belgium's FIFA world ranking and squad depth relative to Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand at the time of group play
- ›Recent win-loss records and goal differential performance of each team in World Cup qualifying or equivalent tournaments
- ›Injury status and squad availability for Belgium's key players in the weeks before group-stage matches
- ›Head-to-head historical records between Belgium and each group opponent in competitive matches
- ›Egypt's strong domestic league performance and whether they field their strongest available squad for the tournament
What moved the line
- Jun 15Egypt↑6pp17→23¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Belgium↓4pp71→67¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Belgium↓3pp67→64¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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