The Kalshi prediction markets are signaling high confidence in continued Fed easing and an unshakable Trump presidency, while traders are pricing in a moderate Bitcoin bull market with significant downside protection. The most critical mispricing appears in the Powell resignation market, where catastrophic political risk is severely underpriced.
The Kalshi prediction markets present a landscape of stark contradictions and revealing consensus views. On one hand, monetary policy expectations are priced with near certainty: a 98% probability of three Fed rate cuts (75 bps) in 2025. On the other, political risk is either viewed as catastrophically high (a 50% chance of President Trump leaving office prematurely) or negligibly low (a 1% chance of Chair Powell departing). Meanwhile, cryptocurrency markets exhibit a structured, moderate bullishness tempered by significant downside hedging. This note dissects these probabilities, identifies material mispricings against historical and fundamental frameworks, and provides actionable trade structures for institutional and sophisticated retail traders.
The 98% probability of three Fed rate cuts (market: 'Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?') and the mere 6% probability of only two cuts demonstrate an extraordinary consensus. The market is effectively discounting any deviation from a steady, dovish glide path. This pricing likely incorporates recent CPI prints, softening labor data, and the Fed's own communicated dot plot. The risk here is asymmetric to the downside (i.e., fewer cuts). Any resurgence in inflation data (e.g., energy price spikes, sticky services inflation) or resilient employment figures could rapidly reprice this market. Traders should monitor the 2-cut market (6%) as a cheap hedge against policy pauses. The high volume ($5.2M) indicates this is a crowded trade, increasing vulnerability to a sharp reversal on hawkish data.
This 1% probability is, in our professional assessment, the single most mispriced contract in the current Kalshi universe. It fails to account for multiple, non-correlated risk vectors:
Actionable Insight: The 'Yes' share is a high-conviction, long-volatility political risk play. Accumulate on weakness or on any headlines regarding Trump's Fed comments or legislative threats to Fed independence. A realistic fair-value probability lies between 15-25%. This represents a potential 15-25x return on a correct prediction.
A 50% probability of presidential departure is historically unmoored. The annualized attrition rate for U.S. presidents is remarkably low. Even including the exceptional cases of the 20th century (Kennedy's assassination, Nixon's resignation), the probability does not approach 50% on a one-year horizon. This market is not trading on pure probability; it is a composite of:
Actionable Insight: For traders with risk capacity, selling this volatility (i.e., buying 'No' shares at 50% implied probability) is a statistically sound trade with a positive expected value over many iterations. It is, however, 'picking up pennies in front of a steamroller'—a high-probability gain with a catastrophic, albeit low-probability, risk. A more nuanced approach would be to sell 'Yes' shares on any spikes driven by sensationalist headlines, as these are likely to revert.
The cryptocurrency markets are the most logically consistent set in this data batch, reflecting a mature, two-way market.
Actionable Insight: The spread between the $100k probability (11%) and the $80k floor probability (20%) creates a potential box trade opportunity. The structure of these markets also supports selling call spreads above $110k to finance put spreads below $80k, constructing a defined-risk, non-directional volatility play.
The Ethereum market ($5,000+ at 2%) is the relative value play within crypto. Historically, in bullish macro conditions for crypto, Ethereum's beta to Bitcoin is greater than 1. The market is currently pricing in a lower beta. If one believes the Fed easing cycle will fuel a broad-based crypto rally, then Ethereum at 2% for a 2x move is mispriced relative to Bitcoin's 1% for a 2x move to $130k. Key catalysts for a repricing include: the final approval of spot ETH ETFs and their subsequent flows, and successful implementation of key protocol upgrades (e.g., further scalability improvements).
Actionable Insight: Go long the ETH $5k market versus shorting an equivalent delta of the BTC $130k market as a relative value, beta-capture trade.
The current Kalshi markets offer two high-conviction, divergent trades:
For cryptocurrency traders, the markets advise a cautiously bullish stance with defined risk limits. Fade extreme moves outside the $80k-$110k corridor implied by the current probability distribution. The consensus on Fed easing is a tailwind, but it is overwhelmingly priced in, making it a weak standalone signal.
Current Probability: 1.0%
The 'Powell leaves before 2026' market, at 1% probability, is the most significant mispricing across the entire dataset. Historically, no Fed Chair has served under three presidents of opposing parties, a precedent Powell would set if he remains through a potential Trump second term. The market is pricing in near-certainty of continuity, ignoring: 1) The historical precedent of chair turnover with party change (Volcker/Reagan, Greenspan/Clinton, Bernanke/Obama, Yellen/Trump). 2) Trump's publicly documented animus towards Powell and desire for a compliant Fed. 3) The personal incentive for Powell, who has overseen a dramatic inflation cycle, to exit on his own terms rather than face potential public pressure or dismissal. This is a binary event with massively asymmetric payoff. A prudent trader should accumulate 'Yes' positions on any significant news hinting at political Fed pressure, with a expected probability realistically between 15-25%.
Current Probability: 50.0%
The 'Trump out this year' market at 50% is a market in extreme disequilibrium, driven more by narrative and hedging than objective probability. Since 1789, the annualized probability of a U.S. president leaving office prematurely (via death, resignation, or removal) is approximately 1.2%. Even in the modern era, it's below 2%. A 50% probability implies a 25-50x multiple on historical base rates. This is likely driven by two cohorts: 1) Partisan bettors convinced of a constitutional or health crisis. 2) Institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchasing 'Yes' shares as catastrophic political risk insurance for their portfolios. For a quantitative trader, this presents a clear 'sell the panic' opportunity. The 'No' shares are effectively trading at a 50% discount to their true statistical probability. The market will likely bleed towards 10-20% over the coming months barring a major, tangible crisis.
Current Probability: 11.0%
The suite of Bitcoin markets paints a coherent picture of a maturing asset class with a bullish but tempered outlook. The $100k by year-end market at 11% is the central anchor. This is complemented by the 'How high' markets: $130k (1%), $140k (2%), $150k (1%). The low probabilities on these long-tail outcomes suggest the market sees a low likelihood of a parabolic, retail-fueled melt-up. Conversely, the 'How low' market ($80k floor at 20% probability) indicates meaningful concern about a ~20% correction from current levels. This structure suggests traders expect a choppy grind higher, potentially stalling near the symbolic $100k level. Volume is heavily concentrated on the $100k and $80k markets, indicating these are key psychological and options hedging levels. The low probability on $130k+ events suggests selling covered calls or call spreads above $110k may be an attractive yield strategy.
Current Probability: 2.0%
The Ethereum '>$5,000' market at 2% probability is notably bearish relative to Bitcoin's implied volatility and historical ETH/BTC correlation. Ethereum at $5,000 represents a roughly 2x increase from ~$2,500. The comparable Bitcoin move to $130k is also a ~2x from ~$65k, yet is priced at 1%. This suggests the market sees Ethereum as having lower upside beta or facing greater structural headwinds (e.g., regulatory uncertainty as a potential security, competition from L1/L2s). Given ETH's historical tendency to outperform BTC in risk-on bull rallies, this 2% probability may be undervalued if the broader crypto bull thesis plays out. This market could serve as a cheap, leveraged bet on altcoin season materializing before year-end.