CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: CD Los Chankas (-1.5)
Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x324efc…b8c6
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: CD Garcilaso (-1.5)
0x714e3b…5238
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xaa7a3e…cb6d
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: CD Garcilaso (-2.5)
0x58a0c0…93c9
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: CD Los Chankas (-2.5)
0x924923…cc1c
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xb23ff5…bc2b
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x6f92e9…57f5
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: CD Los Chankas (-1.5)
0x90114b…f932
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x34c090…bb23
Analysis
This market estimates a 33% probability that CD Los Chankas will win by more than 1.5 goals against CD Garcilaso in an upcoming Peruvian football match. The relatively low probability reflects market participants' view that Los Chankas are unlikely to achieve a margin of victory exceeding a single goal, suggesting either a close contest or a Garcilaso victory in most scenarios. The probability is driven by the teams' recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage dynamics. The match result will directly resolve this contract, providing clarity on Los Chankas' offensive capability and Garcilaso's defensive strength. Market movement depends on team news, injury reports, and any shifts in betting consensus leading up to kickoff.
- ›CD Los Chankas' recent goal-scoring rate and conversion efficiency in league play compared to historical averages
- ›CD Garcilaso's defensive record over the last 5-10 matches, particularly goals conceded per game
- ›Home or away status of the match and the respective teams' performance differential in those contexts
- ›Head-to-head results between these teams over the past 2-3 seasons and average goal margins
- ›Current league standings and momentum indicators (win streaks, goal differential trends) for both clubs
What moved the line
- May 2CD Los Chankas (-2.5)↓6pp17→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 2CD Los Chankas (-1.5)↑4pp16→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 3.5↑3pp20→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CD Los Chankas (-2.5)↓3pp11→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 2CD Garcilaso (-2.5)↓3pp9→6¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.