Who will Trump pardon before 2027
Leader sits at 63% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Donald Brodie
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
Stefan Brodie
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$24
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
200 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump pardon before 2027
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Sam Bankman-Fried
0x2c41ac…c35f
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Hunter Biden
0xcd4a8e…dabb
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Ryan Salame
0xbde10f…e32c
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Joe Exotic
0xbb8c9a…fc96
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Roger Ver
0xb5052b…8d48
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Young Thug
0xaf3f06…fec7
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Stefan Brodie
0xa50373…66b1
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Antoine Massey
0xa351f0…ec93
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Donald Brodie
0x836ddf…7be8
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Elon Musk
0x63c7e6…be8b
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez
0x54701b…e579
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Julian Assange
0x507746…2978
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Steve Bannon
0x4a869d…9ad2
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Derek Chauvin
0x354d0b…b91c
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Eric Adams
0x30efbe…21b9
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Daniel Penny
0x25a847…69ed
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Nicolas Maduro
0x1b53ad…681a
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Edward Snowden
0x07d488…f7cf
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Bob Menendez
0x0146bc…f831
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Himself
0x6bc658…277b
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Daniel Penny will receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2026. The current 54% price suggests roughly even odds, though traders are distributed across multiple potential pardon recipients including Steve Bannon (24¢), Edward Snowden (28¢), and Ghislaine Maxwell (12¢). The probability would rise if Trump signals willingness to pardon politically controversial figures or if legal pressures on specific individuals intensify. It would fall if Trump announces a restrictive pardon policy or if prospective recipients' legal situations improve. The primary catalyst is any formal pardon announcement by the administration, which would immediately resolve the outcome and likely trigger cascading reassessment across related contracts.
- ›Daniel Penny's conviction status and whether his case remains subject to ongoing litigation or appeal that could influence pardon timing
- ›Trump administration's stated position on presidential clemency for controversial or high-profile figures versus routine criminal defendants
- ›Relative political cost-benefit calculations across the 20 named individuals, which may shift based on media coverage or public opinion developments
- ›Volume and pricing patterns across competing outcomes, with Edward Snowden at 28¢ and Steve Bannon at 24¢ suggesting market uncertainty about the administration's priorities
- ›Historical precedent from Trump's first term regarding pardon frequency and targets, and any changes in 2025-2026 behavior that would indicate shifting patterns
What moved the line
- Jun 9Keonne Rodriguez↑9pp21→30¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11Keonne Rodriguez↓5pp30→25¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 8Sam Bankman-Fried↑4pp8→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11Bob Menendez↓4pp37→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13Bob Menendez↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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