Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No change
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Increase
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June
Analysis
The 40% probability reflects market expectations that Colombia's central bank will take action on rates in June 2026. Colombia's monetary policy direction hinges on inflation trends and economic growth relative to the bank's targets. Recent inflation readings, employment data, and regional rate decisions by peers like Brazil and Mexico typically influence Colombian policymakers. The central bank's June decision meeting will resolve this uncertainty—market participants are pricing in a near-coin-flip scenario between a rate change and holding steady. Regional context matters: other Latin American central banks are currently in different policy phases, affecting capital flows and currency pressures that Colombian officials monitor closely.
- ›Colombia's year-to-date inflation rate relative to the central bank's target band and trend versus previous months
- ›Recent employment and GDP growth data, with weaker economic activity typically supporting rate cuts and stronger growth supporting holds or hikes
- ›Central Bank of Brazil's recent policy stance and statements, given regional spillover effects on Colombian monetary conditions
- ›USD/COP exchange rate movements and external capital flow patterns in the weeks preceding the June decision
- ›Forward guidance or communications from Colombian central bank officials between now and June regarding inflation outlook and economic risks
What moved the line
- May 1Increase↓29pp64→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 1No change↑21pp36→57¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Decrease↓17pp23→6¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Decrease↑15pp8→23¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Increase↓9pp73→64¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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