SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d43pp · 13h

Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús - More Markets

Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 49¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

24pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 73% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 49% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 49% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 50% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.573¢O/U 2.549¢Both Teams to Score50¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 30% probability reflects market expectations that CA Lanús will win their upcoming match against Club Always Ready. The current price suggests Club Always Ready is favored at 55 cents, with limited recent trading volume on most contracts. Movement in this probability would depend on team form, head-to-head history, and any roster changes or injury updates before kickoff. The match outcome itself—scheduled for the date specified in the fixture—will definitively resolve this contract. Market pricing across the related contracts shows some differentiation: the Club Always Ready win is valued substantially higher than Lanús at 22 cents, while the derived handicap markets (Club Always Ready at -1.5 odds at 28 cents and Lanús at -1.5 at 11 cents) suggest limited expectation for either team to cover significant spreads.

  • Club Always Ready contract trades at 55¢ versus CA Lanús at 22¢, indicating home or historical favorites in the matchup
  • Only $74 in 24-hour volume on the direct Lanús contract suggests limited recent trading activity and potentially soft liquidity
  • The -1.5 handicap market for Club Always Ready (28¢) compared to Lanús (11¢) shows uncertainty around margin of victory
  • Related over/under 4.5 goals market at 12¢ indicates expectation of low-scoring outcomes
  • Multiple derivative contracts exist but show minimal volume, suggesting market participants may lack confidence in current pricing

What moved the line

  • May 3Club Always Ready (-2.5)5pp1520¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3CA Lanús (-2.5)5pp1015¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Both Teams to Score5pp5550¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3CA Lanús (-1.5)3pp1114¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.