Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC
Leader sits at 39% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Club Independiente Petrolero
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Caracas FC
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC: Club Independiente Petrolero
0xdbb8be…cf08
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC: Caracas FC
0xcdfe02…cef4
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC: Draw (Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC)
0x4a30de…1f0a
Analysis
This 33% probability reflects the chance that Club Independiente Petrolero will win against Caracas FC in an upcoming match. The estimate sits between Kalshi's 30% and Polymarket's 34%, with a modest 4 percentage point spread suggesting moderate consensus. Petrolero's probability is shaped by team form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage if applicable. The primary driver of movement would be recent performance data or lineup announcements closer to match day. The contract "Both Teams to Score" trading at 55% indicates the market expects a competitive, offensive-minded contest rather than a heavily favored outcome. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result, which will occur on the fixture date currently reflected in these prices.
- ›Recent win-loss records for both teams in their respective leagues or tournaments as of early May 2026
- ›Head-to-head historical results between Petrolero and Caracas in previous meetings
- ›Whether the match is played at Petrolero's home stadium or neutral ground, influencing home-field advantage
- ›Lineup availability and injury status for key players on either side
- ›Current league standings or tournament context that signals relative team strength in the competitive calendar
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.