SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d16pp · 13h

Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 49¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

16pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-03O/U 3.5: 20% on 2026-05-03Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5): 23% on 2026-05-03
Both Teams to Score50¢O/U 3.520¢Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)23¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market assigns a 49% probability to Cusco FC defeating Estudiantes de La Plata in an upcoming match, based on aggregated predictions from five Polymarket contracts. The current price reflects modest backing for Cusco, though it trails the runner-up outcome at 19%, indicating the market views this as a competitive but uncertain fixture. The probability would shift based on team form, injury updates, and weather conditions affecting play style. The match result itself will definitively resolve this contract, eliminating uncertainty once the final whistle sounds. Liquidity remains relatively modest at current volumes, suggesting room for price movement if new information emerges or larger positions accumulate.

  • Cusco FC's home-field advantage (if applicable) and recent goal-scoring record versus Estudiantes' defensive consistency and away-game performance
  • Availability of key players and any recent injuries or suspensions affecting either squad's starting lineup or tactical flexibility
  • Historical head-to-head record between the teams and recent seasonal form (points per game, goal differential) in their respective competitions
  • Weather and pitch conditions at the venue, which can disproportionately favor certain playing styles or teams with particular strengths
  • Market concentration: the leading contract holder controls 49% of aggregate probability; significant new capital flows could shift the price materially

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.