SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 4, 2026 · 0d12pp · 38h

El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC

Leader sits at 40% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

40%

El Ittihad SC El Iskandary

runner-up 34¢leader 40¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

34¢

Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskan

Spread

6pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 4, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayEl Ittihad SC El Iskandary: 40% (4 days, 3 points)El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: 40% on 2026-05-03Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC): 33% (4 days, 4 points)Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC): 33% on 2026-05-03Petrojet SC: 27% (4 days, 3 points)Petrojet SC: 27% on 2026-05-02
El Ittihad SC El Iskandary40¢Draw (El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Petrojet SC)33¢Petrojet SC27¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 28% probability reflects the likelihood that El Ittihad SC El Iskandary will defeat Petrojet SC in an upcoming Egyptian football match. The prediction aggregates data from multiple prediction markets, with slightly higher confidence at Kalshi (30%) compared to Polymarket (27%). The probability suggests bookmakers view this as a relatively close contest, favoring El Ittihad but leaving meaningful uncertainty. Market resolution will depend on team form, squad availability, and head-to-head dynamics. The lack of recent trading volume across most contracts suggests limited fresh information flowing into these markets, which may reflect the match's timing or general market interest levels in this fixture.

  • Current Polymarket pricing on El Ittihad direct victory at 41¢ implies ~41% win probability, higher than the aggregated 28%, indicating internal inconsistency or different contract definitions across venues
  • Zero 24-hour trading volume on all listed contracts suggests illiquid markets with potentially stale pricing that may not reflect late-breaking team news or injury updates
  • Head-to-head spreads priced across multiple handicap levels (-1.5, -2.5) indicate disagreement among market participants on the true margin of victory
  • The 3-percentage-point spread between venues (Kalshi 30% vs Polymarket 27%) is within normal variance but suggests different trader populations weighting available information differently
  • Lack of clearly dominant favorite despite El Ittihad pricing suggests both teams have recent form or context that prevents strong consensus

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.