Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 28%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
28%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12
15 contracts
Top contract
37¢
$7 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (28¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Cusco FC
0xbfcfaf…b47e
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)
0xedbf98…a9d2
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Cusco FC (-1.5)
0x413b32…a054
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Estudiantes de La Plata (-2.5)
0xb7999b…5ff6
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Cusco FC (-2.5)
0x8b94a2…391e
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Draw (Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata)
0xb90ef3…89c2
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc3eb9b…d2bb
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x85655c…e0c8
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa6a158…2cf5
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x21404a…1e39
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5a357f…e2d8
Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Estudiantes de La Plata
0x6e16dc…68d7
Cluster 2
Cusco vs Estudiantes La Plata Winner
Cusco vs Estudiantes La Plata Winner?: Estudiantes La Plata
KXCONMEBOLLIBGAME-26MAY06CUSELP-ELP
Cusco vs Estudiantes La Plata Winner?: Tie
KXCONMEBOLLIBGAME-26MAY06CUSELP-TIE
Cusco vs Estudiantes La Plata Winner?: Cusco
KXCONMEBOLLIBGAME-26MAY06CUSELP-CUS
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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