SimpleFunctions
15 contractsKalshi + Polymarketrefreshed just now

Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 28%.

Implied probability

29%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

30%

3 contracts

Polymarket

28%

12 contracts

Cross-venue gap

2pp

tight

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$12

15 contracts

Top contract

37¢

$7 · Kalshi

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 27% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 27% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 15 contracts · 2d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 2pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (28¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

2 clusters across 15 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata

12 contracts$5

Cluster 2

Cusco vs Estudiantes La Plata Winner

3 contracts$7

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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