Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
11¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe” vs “V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xdfd081…ff31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa5be96…39c2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x840caa…6f30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xced570…3f21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)
0x5cd99b…877d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
0xc674e6…b72c
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0x1c22d5…7c68
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe)
0x0324af…007a
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x46afc0…7592
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)
0x838893…f108
Cluster 2
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: V-Varen Nagasaki
0xc5b7c9…53a4
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)
0xf65661…1cc3
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)
0x939800…62bf
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: Fagiano Okayama
0x63a827…8c8d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x39f384…3efc
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x716f77…c36d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x72e6ac…411d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2871c0…c97c
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama)
0xc6a6ba…cf59
What moved the line
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)↑14pp12→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima↑6pp43→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)↑4pp28→32¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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