Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC
Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ZED FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Draw (Haras El Hodood SC vs.
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC
Analysis
This 43% probability indicates that traders assess Haras El Hodood SC as the favorite to win this match, though with meaningful uncertainty remaining. The pricing reflects a competitive fixture where the Egyptian club holds a modest edge over ZED FC. Key drivers of this probability include recent form, head-to-head history, and perceived squad strength, though low trading volume suggests limited market conviction. The outcome will be determined when the match concludes, with the final result providing the definitive resolution. Bettors and traders should monitor team news closer to kickoff, as lineup changes or injury reports often shift probabilities in competitions at this level. The wide range across related markets—from 32¢ on the spread to 54¢ on over/under goals—suggests traders have varying confidence in specific match characteristics.
- ›Haras El Hodood SC is priced as the match favorite at 43% vs. 33% for ZED FC, a roughly 10-point gap indicating moderate confidence rather than overwhelming dominance
- ›Related markets show mixed signals: the under-2.5 goals contract trades at 54¢, suggesting expectations of a lower-scoring match, while both-teams-to-score sits at 49¢
- ›Minimal 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates thin liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads, reducing reliability of price movements as confidence signals
- ›The 32¢ price on Haras El Hodood SC spread (-2.5) suggests limited expectation of a decisive victory despite the match-winner favorite status
- ›Match resolution depends entirely on final outcome at scheduled kickoff; no interim data releases or evolving conditions affect the binary winner determination
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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