Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Júbilo Iwata (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
40%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$19
20 contracts
Top contract
56¢
$19 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC” vs “Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x0aa172…3ef6
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: Matsumoto Yamaga FC
0x992a3f…3909
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x3a2525…2e6c
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)
0x17df3f…3a78
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)
0x1852d1…1f72
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x99c503…6f42
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: FC Gifu (-1.5)
0xc2a30a…e6c8
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe897e5…45d0
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x14ea88…f55f
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets: FC Gifu (-2.5)
0x357eb0…5b1a
Cluster 2
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc95a40…390b
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Júbilo Iwata (-1.5)
0x077801…3ead
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Júbilo Iwata (-2.5)
0x9dc1f0…3abe
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x35df37…0e4f
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xdbabef…231f
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Ventforet Kōfu (-2.5)
0xcac6d6…bece
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x6ae87a…092d
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x0adfa4…5fdd
Ventforet Kōfu vs. Júbilo Iwata - More Markets: Ventforet Kōfu (-1.5)
0xdb9799…5f07
Cluster 3
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5)
0xf0472b…99af
What moved the line
- May 3Júbilo Iwata (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Gifu (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Gifu (-1.5)↑3pp39→42¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.