Trump & Politics Prediction Market Odds

Trump Mentions Market Explodes Ahead of Nassau County Remarks

The 'What will Donald Trump say' market (KXTRUMPMENTION-26AUG) saw cumulative volume exceeding 300k across dozens of sub-contracts. The most specific phrases (e.g., 'Who are you with' at 82¢) are heavily traded. This reflects intense retail interest in decoding Trump's public statements.

Trump Mention Markets See Frenzied Activity as Traders Bet on His Next Fox News Line

The largest cluster of Trump-related trading is in 'mention' markets, where contracts predict specific phrases Donald Trump will say during his Fox News appearances or speeches. The most liquid contract trades at 99¢ with 54,452 volume. These markets represent a unique form of political sentiment trading, with dozens of specific phrases being priced with near-certainty.

Trump's Next Attorney General: Market Converges on a Favorite at 95 Cents

A contract on 'Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?' surged to 95 cents, the highest conviction seen in any major cabinet speculation market. This suggests traders believe a specific individual is all but confirmed for the role.

Trump odds rise on resignation market after internal turmoil report

The probability of Donald Trump leaving office before 2027 doubled from 3¢ to 6¢ on a single report of cabinet infighting. While still low, the move attracted 6,117 contracts and signals growing potential for volatility.

Trump Insurrection Act Odds Rise; Political Risk Premium Builds

The contract 'Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?' sits at 59¢, a level not seen before. Combined with a 16% chance of impeachment/removal, traders are pricing in significant political uncertainty around Trump’s second term.

Trump 'say' markets near 99¢ probability on common phrases

Numerous Trump mention contracts are trading at 99¢—almost certain he will say words like 'Windmill', 'Autopen', and 'Kamala' before Aug 3. Volume is high, reflecting interest in Trump's speaking style.

Trump 'Fox News' Mention Market Draws Massive Volume

The market on whether President Trump will say 'Fox News' before August 1st is the second most active prediction market in the dataset with over 150,000 in volume. A 54¢ price suggests traders see this as more likely than not, reflecting intense interest in monitoring his public commentary.

Trump Tariffs: High Probability of New Trade Actions

The market gives 83% chance (83¢) that Trump will impose new or increased tariffs soon (KXNEWTARIFFS). This has broad implications for inflation, Fed policy, and global trade. Trump's approval rating is weak, with 20% chance of resignation before term ends.

Trump Markets High Volume – World Cup Attendance at 93¢

Trump-related markets span attendance, speeches, policy, and office tenure. The highest volume is for Trump attending the World Cup Final (93¢, 776k vol). The speech mention series has dozens of contracts at extreme prices.

Trump World Cup Attendance Near Certain, Administration Turnover Markets Heat Up

Trump's attendance at the 2026 World Cup Final is priced at 94¢ (vol 549,594), the most liquid Trump market. Meanwhile, markets on administration departures (Kash Patel out as FBI Director before 2027 at 49¢) and potential resignations are drawing volume. The SAVE Act remains a long shot at 9¢.