Predictions/Trump & Politics

Trump & Politics Prediction Market Odds

4 markets·07:50 AM UTC

Trump out before 2027 at 16¢; Tulsi Gabbard (65¢) and Kash Patel (57¢, down 17¢) most likely cabinet departures; Trump approval could hit 35% (51¢).

Key Markets

ContractPrice24hVolSpread

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Kash PatelPatel's departure odds dropped 17¢ in a day—suggesting he may be consolidating power rather than leaving.

57¢-17¢23.4k—

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?: 35%Approval hitting 35% jumped 8¢ to coin-flip odds, reflecting accelerating political headwinds.

51¢+8¢2.7k—

Trump out as President before 2027?The highest-volume single Trump market at $315K daily volume is the key risk barometer for his presidency.

16¢+1¢315.6k—

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

55¢—509.1k1¢

Dispatches

Trump Approval Collapse Odds Surge — Biggest Political Mover of the Day

Markets are pricing a 51% chance Trump's approval hits 35% in 2026, up a staggering 14 points in 24 hours. Combined with Democrats at 88% to win the House and recession odds ticking up to 28%, the political landscape is shifting rapidly. Oil surging 12% suggests tariff-driven supply disruption that could accelerate economic pain.

Apr 4full analysis

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Track trump & politics in real timenpm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf query "trump"