Trump & Politics Prediction Market Odds

Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms

The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.

Trump-Xi Handshake Duration Market Sees Wild 70-Point Swing

The probability that Trump and Xi will shake hands for 10-15 seconds jumped from 21¢ to 91¢ after a viral video analysis. This niche market has become a proxy for U.S.-China relations sentiment.

Trump's China Visit Now a Virtual Certainty by May 15

The market for Trump visiting China by May 15 surged 12¢ to 99¢, with over 2.9M in volume. This signals a near-imminent announcement, likely tied to trade deal or geopolitical talks. The longer-term June 30 contract is already at 100¢.

Trump-von der Leyen Call Confirmed by Markets: 74¢ Single-Day Surge

The 'Who will Trump talk to in April: Ursula von der Leyen' contract exploded 74¢ to 86¢ today — the single largest price move of any contract in today's data. This near-certain confirmation of a Trump-EU summit call is highly relevant to trade deal negotiations and transatlantic relations.

Kash Patel FBI Exit Bets Surge — June Odds Hit 63¢

The Kash Patel out by June 30 contract jumped 13¢ to 63¢ on Polymarket, one of the largest single-day political moves in the dataset. This aligns with mounting pressure on Patel's position and is corroborated by rising volume across all Patel exit timeframes.

Kash Patel FBI Director Departure Odds Surge 12¢ to 64¢ by June 30

Kash Patel's June 30 departure probability jumped 12¢ to 64¢ today — the largest single-day move among Trump administration markets. Pete Hegseth also rose 3¢ to 5¢ for April 30 departure. This suggests breaking news or signals about FBI leadership instability heading into the spring.

Kash Patel Departure Odds Explode +28¢ in Single Day to 32¢ for April 30

The Kash Patel 'out by April 30' contract surged +28¢ to 32¢ on Polymarket today, with the June 30 contract simultaneously jumping +28¢ to 59¢. This coordinated move across timeframes signals credible intelligence about Patel's tenure as FBI Director ending soon, making this one of the sharpest single-day political moves in the dataset.

Trump Iran End-of-Operations Declaration Crashes -13¢ to 33¢ — Conflict Drags On

The 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30' contract fell 13 cents to 33¢ on $133k volume. This diverges sharply from improving ceasefire signals, suggesting operational end is not imminent even as diplomatic progress is made.

Trump UFC Attendance Surges +28¢ as Masters Begins

The Trump UFC 327 attendance market jumped +28¢ to 85¢ on Polymarket, while Masters golf dominates volume with Rory McIlroy up +4¢ to 11¢. Sam Burns jumped +5¢ to 6¢ in Masters winner markets, suggesting early leaderboard moves after Round 1 begin.

Trump Approval Collapse Odds Surge — Biggest Political Mover of the Day

Markets are pricing a 51% chance Trump's approval hits 35% in 2026, up a staggering 14 points in 24 hours. Combined with Democrats at 88% to win the House and recession odds ticking up to 28%, the political landscape is shifting rapidly. Oil surging 12% suggests tariff-driven supply disruption that could accelerate economic pain.