Trump & Politics Prediction Market Odds

Trump Sayings Market Explodes: 'TDS' Nearly Certain

The KXTRUMPSAY series has seen massive volume, with 'Trump says TDS' at 99¢ and 74k volume. These markets capture real-time political rhetoric and have become a unique prediction asset.

High-Conviction Bets on Trump Attending World Cup Final

Donald Trump attending the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is priced at 88¢, among the highest conviction bets across all topics. This is a proxy for broader political event attendance and has implications for diplomatic optics and market sentiment. The market on his removal from office before 2029 remains low at 31¢.

Trump Pivots on Hormuz Blockade — Market Prices 63% Chance of Lift by June 30

The 'Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30' contract surged 32¢ to 63¢ in a single session, making it the single biggest mover across all Trump-linked markets. This repricing is the direct political consequence of the Iran diplomatic surge — traders now see a high likelihood that the administration will claim a diplomatic win by lifting the blockade in conjunction with a nuclear deal framework.

Project Freedom Surge Signals Imminent Executive Action

The market saw a massive repricing of a contract related to a Trump executive action ('Project Freedom'), jumping from 13¢ to 100¢. This near-certainty event signals a high-impact policy announcement expected by June 30. The sudden move indicates strong insider or event-driven buying.

Trump Insult Markets Heat Up: MTG and Tucker Carlson Now Favorites

With May 31 approaching, traders are betting heavily on Trump publicly insulting specific figures. Marjorie Taylor Greene surged 63¢ to 82¢, and Tucker Carlson jumped 77¢ to 81¢. This indicates a likely public feud before month-end.

Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms

The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.

Trump-Xi Handshake Duration Market Sees Wild 70-Point Swing

The probability that Trump and Xi will shake hands for 10-15 seconds jumped from 21¢ to 91¢ after a viral video analysis. This niche market has become a proxy for U.S.-China relations sentiment.

Trump's China Visit Now a Virtual Certainty by May 15

The market for Trump visiting China by May 15 surged 12¢ to 99¢, with over 2.9M in volume. This signals a near-imminent announcement, likely tied to trade deal or geopolitical talks. The longer-term June 30 contract is already at 100¢.

Trump-von der Leyen Call Confirmed by Markets: 74¢ Single-Day Surge

The 'Who will Trump talk to in April: Ursula von der Leyen' contract exploded 74¢ to 86¢ today — the single largest price move of any contract in today's data. This near-certain confirmation of a Trump-EU summit call is highly relevant to trade deal negotiations and transatlantic relations.

Kash Patel FBI Exit Bets Surge — June Odds Hit 63¢

The Kash Patel out by June 30 contract jumped 13¢ to 63¢ on Polymarket, one of the largest single-day political moves in the dataset. This aligns with mounting pressure on Patel's position and is corroborated by rising volume across all Patel exit timeframes.