Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom meet before May 1, 2026
Leader sits at 87% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Keir Starmer
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Mark Carney
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
19 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Donald Trump
Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Mohammed bin Salman
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-MBS
Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-RERD
Donald Trump and Narendra Modi meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Narendra Modi
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-NMOD
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Vladimir Putin
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-VPUT
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-VZEL
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Xi Jinping
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-XJIN
Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Zohran Mamdani
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-ZMAM
Donald Trump and John Thune meet before Jul 1, 2026?: John Thune
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-JTHU
Donald Trump and Reza Pahlavi meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Reza Pahlavi
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-RPAH
Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Ron DeSantis
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-RDES
Donald Trump and María Corina Machado meet before Jul 1, 2026?: María Corina Machado
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-MCM
Donald Trump and Mark Carney meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Mark Carney
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-MCAR
Donald Trump and Lai Ching-te meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Lai Ching-te
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-LCHI
Donald Trump and Keir Starmer meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Keir Starmer
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-KSTA
Donald Trump and Jensen Huang meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Jensen Huang
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-JHUA
Donald Trump and Hakeem Jeffries meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Hakeem Jeffries
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-HJEF
Donald Trump and Delcy Rodriguez meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Delcy Rodriguez
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-DROD
Donald Trump and Chuck Schumer meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Chuck Schumer
KXTRUMPMEET-26JUN-CSCH
What moved the line
- Jun 11John Thune↑35pp37→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 8John Thune↓34pp71→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 9Zohran Mamdani↓33pp68→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Jensen Huang↑23pp48→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Zohran Mamdani↑20pp46→66¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- What will Melania Trump say during 113th Annual First Lady’s Luncheonnolast 81% · 0d
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...last 96% · 1d
- How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnellnolast 6% · 2d
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Apr 24, 2026last 96% · 2d
- Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Labor Secretary before May 1, 2026last 94% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Project Freedom Surge Signals Imminent Executive Action
The market saw a massive repricing of a contract related to a Trump executive action ('Project Freedom'), jumping from 13¢ to 100¢. This near-certainty event signals a high-impact policy announcement expected by June 30. The sudden move indicates strong insider or event-driven buying.
Trump Insult Markets Heat Up: MTG and Tucker Carlson Now Favorites
With May 31 approaching, traders are betting heavily on Trump publicly insulting specific figures. Marjorie Taylor Greene surged 63¢ to 82¢, and Tucker Carlson jumped 77¢ to 81¢. This indicates a likely public feud before month-end.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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