Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−13pp
13h ago
24h volume
$694
17 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Cameron Young
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-CAME
Cluster 2
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Scottie Scheffler
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-SSCH
Cluster 3
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Bryson DeChambeau
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-BDEC
Cluster 4
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Rory McIlroy
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-RMCI
Cluster 5
Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Jon Rahm
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-JRAH
Cluster 6
Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Si Woo Kim
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-WKIM
Cluster 7
Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Ludvig Aberg
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-LABE
Cluster 8
Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Akshay Bhatia
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-ABHA
Cluster 9
Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Sam Burns
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-SBUR
Cluster 10
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Matt Fitzpatrick
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-MFIT
Cluster 11
Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Tommy Fleetwood
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-TFLE
Cluster 12
Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Ryan Gerard
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-RGER
Cluster 13
Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Chris Gotterup
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-CGOT
Cluster 14
Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Brooks Koepka
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-BKOE
Cluster 15
Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Collin Morikawa
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-CMOR
Cluster 16
Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Justin Rose
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-JROS
Cluster 17
Will Gary Woodland lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Gary Woodland lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Gary Woodland
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-GWOO
Analysis
This market asks whether Ludvig Aberg will hold the lead after 54 holes in the PGA Championship. At 27%, the probability reflects Aberg as a credible contender but not a favorite. The assessment likely factors his recent form on the PGA Tour, his track record in major championships, and the competitive field. The market suggests he faces stronger challengers—Cameron Young at 20% for the same round position, and established players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy commanding larger shares of outright favorites. The probability could shift based on actual tournament results during Rounds 1 and 2, when leaderboard positioning becomes concrete rather than speculative. The primary catalyst is the PGA Championship itself, where only observable play through three rounds will definitively address whether Aberg leads at that checkpoint.
- ›Ludvig Aberg's 2026 PGA Tour performance and major championship history compared to peers in the field
- ›Cameron Young trading at 20% for the same outcome suggests Aberg at 27% may reflect marginal statistical edge or different assessor expectations
- ›Scottie Scheffler and other established champions trading at single-digit percentages for Round 1 lead positions, indicating market views Aberg as middle-tier contender
- ›The market requires Aberg to lead after Round 3 specifically—a 54-hole benchmark rather than outright victory, affecting probability calculation
- ›Actual tournament play during Rounds 1-2 will generate objective leaderboard data that either supports or contradicts current pre-event probability assessments
What moved the line
- May 1Scottie Scheffler↑28pp12→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Matt Fitzpatrick↓24pp49→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Cameron Young↓19pp20→1¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Cameron Young↑17pp3→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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