Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Sanfrecce Hiroshima has a 48% chance of winning an upcoming match against Vissel Kōbe, with a 28% probability assigned to a draw and 24% to a Kōbe victory. The probability reflects Hiroshima's current positioning as slight favorites, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage. The outcome will be determined when the match concludes, with contract resolution depending on the final score. Key drivers of movement would include team injury updates, lineup changes, or shifts in recent performance trends in the J-League season. Low trading volume across contracts suggests limited recent market activity, potentially indicating either consensus pricing or minimal new information entering the market.
- ›Sanfrecce Hiroshima priced at 48% vs. Vissel Kōbe at 24%, indicating modest but not substantial favorite status
- ›Draw outcome valued at 28%, suggesting reasonable probability of a stalemate in this matchup
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent market recalibration or new information
- ›Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) spread priced at 23¢ suggests less conviction in a decisive home victory
- ›Both Teams to Score contract at 55¢ indicates market expects an open, attacking match despite Hiroshima being slight favorites
What moved the line
- May 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima↑6pp43→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Vissel Kōbe↓3pp33→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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