Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC)
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Tala'ea El Gaish SC
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Tala'ea El Gaish SC
0xf309d5…6b6b
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Ghazl El Mahalla SC
0x052b58…a59e
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC: Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC)
0x0fc637…0787
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Tala'ea El Gaish SC will win against Ghazl El Mahalla SC. The 41% price suggests a competitive matchup with Ghazl El Mahalla slightly favored across available contracts. Pricing varies modestly across outcome types—a draw is quoted at 28 cents, while Ghazl El Mahalla's outright win is at 32 cents—indicating uncertainty about both the result and margin. The low trading volume across all three Polymarket contracts ($0 recorded in the past 24 hours) suggests limited recent market activity and potentially less liquidity for position adjustment. Key drivers would include current league standing, recent form, head-to-head history, and team-specific factors like injuries or roster changes. The match outcome itself will serve as the resolution event, provided the game is played as scheduled.
- ›Current pricing across three contracts shows Ghazl El Mahalla slightly favored (32-35 cents for win/spread outcomes) versus Tala'ea El Gaish (41 cents), reflecting marginal competitive advantage
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all Polymarket contracts indicates minimal liquidity and suggests pricing may reflect limited recent information flow
- ›Draw probability is quoted at 28 cents, representing roughly one-quarter of total probability mass—a material outcome that would eliminate a third of participants
- ›The match's resolution depends on standard play conditions; postponement or cancellation would typically void contracts or trigger contingency rules
- ›Head-to-head history, league position, recent performance streak, and injury status of key players are standard inputs for pricing Egyptian Super League matchups
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.