Urawa Red Diamonds vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$848
19 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
1 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds” vs “FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds)
0xbb1d85…f498
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x137a07…5c60
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8c771d…0d08
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Kashiwa Reysol
0x3481b3…7cd2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)
0x13fca1…9be2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xde5526…9dbc
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
0xf874fe…2d7f
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1083aa…04fd
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds
0xa86687…d447
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1ae4fa…7485
Cluster 2
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Draw (FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba)
0xb361f9…8895
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: FC Tōkyō
0xd5f09f…3626
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x371c76…f813
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: JEF United Ichihara Chiba
0xdc8c78…b5f6
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)
0x3724ce…8650
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x47d52b…9c5a
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)
0x6d4f0c…5c80
What moved the line
- May 3FC Tōkyō↑18pp48→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 2JEF United Ichihara Chiba↓12pp35→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3JEF United Ichihara Chiba↓10pp23→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)↑10pp10→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)↓8pp37→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Will Ricky Stenhouse finish in the top 10 at NASCAR Jack Link's 500last 27% · 1d
- What will Oz Pearlman say during White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 14% · 1d
- What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearinglast 14% · 1d
- What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)last 14% · 1d
- What will Jared Isaacman say during Senate Committee on Appropriations - NASA Budget hearinglast 14% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.