What will Oz Pearlman say during White House Correspondents' Dinner
Leader sits at 14% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Childcare
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Knicks
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 23, 2026
18 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement
What moved the line
- May 3Childcare↓9pp38→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Childcare↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Childcare↑8pp30→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Knicks↓8pp37→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Knicks↑6pp31→37¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- What will Jared Isaacman say during Senate Committee on Appropriations - NASA Budget hearinglast 14% · 1d
- What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearinglast 14% · 1d
- What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)last 14% · 1d
- Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC - More Marketslast 36% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 16 h ago.