What will Donald Trump say during CNBC
Leader sits at 87% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Iran (5+ times)
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
China / Chinese
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$217K
liquid
Closes
Jun 6, 2026
9 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-CRYP
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Iran (5+ times)
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-IRAN
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Peace
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-PEAC
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Prediction Market / Predictive Market
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-PRED
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Ceasefire
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-CEAS
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Afford / Affordable / Affordability
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-AFFO
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Transgender
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-TRAN
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Blockade
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-BLOC
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: NATO
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-NATO
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: China / Chinese
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-CHIN
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Fake News
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-FAKE
What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Gas / Gasoline
KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY27-GAS
Recently closed in trump
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- Will Trump take another official renaming actionlast 68% · 10d
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- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332last 4% · 36d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Trump Markets: Impeachment Odds at 65¢, Administration Turnover in Focus
Trump continues to be a major market driver with bets on his removal, apologies, and cabinet departures. The impeachment market (65¢) suggests traders see a real possibility of proceedings. The administration's turnover is also a focus.
Trump administration and Press Secretary speculation dominate political markets
The market for the next White House Press Secretary is the single highest-volume market in the entire dataset, with Maria Bartiromo leading at 14¢. Other Trump-focused markets on resignation and impeachment are also active, signaling intense trader interest in the political landscape.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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