SimpleFunctions

Where the market is most uncertain.

2,332 of 4,649 questions sit in coin-flip territory right now — 335 of those show a 5pp+ gap between Kalshi and Polymarket. Liquidity-weighted, refreshed every 15 minutes.

Each dot in the map below is one question, positioned by its probability. Brighter = more contested; dim at the settled edges.

Methodology

Liquidity-weighted aggregation across 4,649 questions and 42,890 contracts on Kalshi (US-regulated event exchange, CFTC-registered) and Polymarket (decentralized prediction market on Polygon). Weights: log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness decay (1.0 < 24h, 0.7 < 7d, 0.4 ≥ 7d). Probabilities update every 15 minutes from the underlying markets’ YES-side last trade or midpoint when no trades.

Movement signal (“moved 5pp+”) is the difference between current probability and the probability at the time the latest editorial narrative was generated for the question — available within ~48h of narrative refresh, so it’s a near-real-time indicator, not a strict 24-hour delta.

Source: /api/public/odds (JSON), /api/public/odds.md (markdown). Concept docs: /concepts/implied-yield· /concepts. Last full recompute: . Updated: 2 min ago.