Prediction Markets Today

Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up

Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.

Oil Markets in Turmoil as Bullish Bets Collapse on Peace Hopes

WTI crude oil prediction markets are experiencing a dramatic reversal. The contract for oil falling to $95 in May surged 33¢ to 72¢, while bets on $110 crashed 22¢ to 38¢. This is directly tied to the rising odds of a US-Iran detente and the potential lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Collapse, Signaling Bullish Conviction

The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 crashed 14¢ to just 21¢, and the June 30 contract fell 23¢ to 43¢. Markets are concluding that Michael Saylor will not sell, reinforcing a bullish Bitcoin supply narrative.

Russia on the Brink of Capturing Pokrovsk as War Momentum Shifts

The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.

Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms

The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.

Iran Peace Deal Optimism Surges, but Cautious Timelines Remain

Across multiple expiry dates, the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal increased significantly, with the June 30 contract rising +8 to 34¢ and the July 31 contract reaching 48¢. This optimism is coupled with a sharp rise in diplomatic meeting probabilities, suggesting a multi-track negotiation process is underway.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Skyrockets, Crypto Markets Wobble

The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31 surged +11 points to 40¢, while the probability for a sale by June 30 is now 71¢. This selling pressure narrative is weighing on Bitcoin prices, which are down alongside traditional risk assets.

Iran nuclear deal odds tumble as May 31 deadline approaches

The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 2¢ to 8¢ with over 520k volume, while a diplomatic meeting by the same date fell 4¢ to 14¢. Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, likely due to recent escalations and lack of progress in talks.

Oil traders brace for extended Strait of Hormuz disruption

The probability of the US blockade being lifted by May 31 dropped 4¢ to 16¢, while the market for normal traffic by end of June sits at 28¢. Combined with WTI contracts pricing in a high likelihood of prices above $100, traders are betting on sustained supply risk.

Anthropic extends AI lead as Gemini 3.5 release approaches

The market for the best AI model end of May gives Anthropic a 92% probability, up 3¢ on 63k volume. Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 is priced at 82¢, up 6¢. The AI race is consolidating around a few players, with Google trying to catch up.

Iran Regime Change and Deal Markets Surge in Volume

Massive trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi, driven by a jump in the probability of a presidential election and a permanent peace deal. The regime's survival after US strikes is seen as highly likely.

Oil Spikes on Geopolitical Risk, Market Bets on $140+

Crude oil prices surged 4.13% as markets price in disruption from the Strait of Hormuz. High-volume contracts point to a belief that oil will hit $140 by June, a direct hedge against escalating conflict.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Collapse, Pushing BTC Lower

The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 plummeted 22¢ to 34¢, driving bearish sentiment across the Bitcoin ecosystem. The market now expects a longer-term hold.

Iran Peace Deal Bets Swing on Long-Dated Optimism

The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 jumped 4¢ to 67¢, while the June 30 contract dipped 2¢ to 32¢. This divergence suggests traders see progress but expect a longer timeline.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Edge Lower – 0-Cut Contract Drops 3¢

The market for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 fell from 72¢ to 69¢, while the June 'no change' contract remains at 98¢. A small but growing possibility of cuts is being priced in for later in the year.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Volatile – May 31 Contract Drops 5¢

The likelihood that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 fell 5¢ to 56¢, while the June 30 contract rose 2¢ to 76¢. Traders are navigating conflicting signals about the company's Bitcoin strategy.

Iran De-escalation Odds Soar as Peace Deal and Diplomacy Markets Surge

US-Iran permanent peace deal contracts saw significant volume and price increases, with the December 31 timeline reaching 67¢ (+4¢) on 108k volume. The 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30' contract traded at 56¢. These moves suggest traders are pricing in a material chance of diplomatic resolution amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Fed Rate Path Firms as 'No Change' June Contract Hits 98¢, Rate Cut Expectations Fade

The 'Fed Decision in June: No change' contract on Polymarket rose 1¢ to 98¢ on 435k volume, the highest conviction level of any Fed market. Meanwhile, the 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0' contract fell 5¢ to 67¢, signaling some erosion in the hawkish consensus. Kalshi's 0bps hike contract is at 96¢ with tight spreads, confirming the market sees no rate action at the June meeting.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Spike: May 31 Contract Hits 56¢, June 30 at 78¢

The 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026' contract surged 3¢ to 56¢ on 489k volume, while the June 30 contract hit 78¢ (+4¢). This suggests traders increasingly believe MSTR will sell some of its massive BTC holdings, potentially catalyzing a market move. IBIT ETF dropped -1.33% and Bitcoin spot markets show weakness.

MicroStrategy BTC Sale Odds Skyrocket 16 Points

The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 surged 16 points to 61¢ on Polymarket, the largest single move in crypto prediction markets today. This suggests a potential catalyst — earnings report,13F filing, or strategic pivot — may be driving the market.