Prediction Market Odds

Oil Surges 12% as Iran Invasion Odds Hit 55¢

USO crude oil ETF surged 12% today while Polymarket prices a 55% chance of US invasion of Iran before 2027. Kalshi's WTI maximum price markets show $150 oil at coin-flip odds (51¢) and $200 oil at 19¢.

GPT-6 Timeline Compressed: June Release Surges 19¢

GPT-6 released by June 2026 surged 19¢ to 42¢ in a single day—the biggest AI model timeline move across all platforms. Anthropic leads the best AI model race at 67¢ while AI wins IMO gold medal jumped to 84¢.

Michigan Surges 39¢ to Lead NCAA Tournament

Michigan vaulted to 73¢ (+39¢) for the NCAA Tournament championship—the biggest single-day move across all 3,558 markets. Arizona collapsed to 0¢ as they were eliminated, generating $280K in volume on the unwind.

Fed Holds Firm at 98¢ While Rate Cut Expectations Shift

April Fed decision is locked at 98¢ no change, but 2026 rate outlook is fracturing: 36% chance of zero cuts vs. a surging 65¢ probability that rates hit 3.25% before 2027, up 11¢ today.

Ukraine Frontline Markets Signal Shifting Momentum

Russia's odds of capturing Lyman by June dropped 9¢ to 28¢, the biggest move in Ukraine battlefield markets. Meanwhile, ceasefire odds remain stuck at 30¢ and a peace deal at 26¢, suggesting a military stalemate is the base case.

Democrats Priced for Historic Midterm Wave

Democrats are 88¢ to flip the House and 53¢ to take the Senate. A full Democratic sweep is at 52¢—the dominant scenario. Combined with Trump approval at 51¢ to hit 35%, traders are pricing in significant anti-incumbency sentiment.

MegaETH Airdrop Drops 20¢ as Token Launch Approaches

MegaETH airdrop by June 2026 crashed 20¢ to 43¢—the largest crypto market move today—while its FDV above $1B rose to 41¢. The divergence suggests the token will launch but via a different distribution mechanism than expected.

Michigan Wolverines Dominating NCAA Tournament

Michigan has surged 39 points to 74% championship probability with $247K in volume, the largest single-day move across all sports markets. UConn sits at 27% with $373K volume as the remaining challenger. Arizona collapsed 33 points. This is the most liquid sports event across both platforms right now.

Fed Paralysis Meets Inflation Fears: Zero Cuts Scenario at 36%

The April Fed meeting is 98% priced for no change, but the full-year 2026 outlook shows 36% probability of zero cuts and 100% chance inflation exceeds 3%. With oil surging 12% today and the S&P flat, markets are pricing stagflation risk. SOFR futures at 39% above 3.75 by mid-2026 suggest rates staying elevated.

La Liga Title Race Effectively Over: Barcelona +20pts in One Day

Barcelona surged 20 points to 94% La Liga winner probability while Real Madrid collapsed from ~24% to just 5% — one of the largest single-day moves in European football betting history. This likely reflects a decisive match result with $124K+ volume on each side confirming strong conviction.

AI Model Race: Anthropic Leads, GPT-6 Timeline Accelerates

Anthropic holds 67% probability for best AI model by end of June, while GPT-6 release by June 2026 surged 9 points to 32%. Claude 5 is gaining momentum with 13% for April release and $20K volume. The AI IMO gold medal market hit 83% (+12pts), suggesting mathematical reasoning breakthroughs are closer than expected.

Democrats 88% to Retake House: Blue Wave Building

Republicans have fallen to just 12% for House control in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip at 52D/49R. Trump's approval rating has a 50% chance of hitting 35% (up 9 points today). Combined with tariff-driven economic anxiety, prediction markets are pricing the most anti-incumbent midterm environment since 2018.

US-Iran Conflict at 54%: Highest Geopolitical Risk Premium on Any Platform

The US invasion of Iran market sits at 54% with nearly $487K in volume — effectively a coin flip with massive conviction. Iran's NPT withdrawal surged 4 points to 32%, and Iran nuclear test is at 9%. The Iranian regime falling sits at 28%. These are the most consequential and liquid geopolitical risk markets available.

Israel-Damascus Escalation Signals Imminent Action

Israel military action against Damascus surged 18 points to 57% for April 30, the largest single-day move in Middle East conflict markets. Combined with ceasefire cancellation odds rising 5 points and Hamas disarmament odds jumping 4 points, multiple markets are pricing in a significant escalation. Oil (USO) is already up 12% today.

MegaETH Airdrop Crash Creates Crypto Market Dislocation

MegaETH airdrop odds crashed 23 points to 40% for June 2026, yet FDV expectations are simultaneously rising — $1B+ probability jumped 5 points to 41%. This dislocation between timeline delay and valuation confidence creates potential arbitrage opportunities. Pump.fun airdrop odds surged 11 points suggesting rotation into other airdrop plays.

US-Iran Invasion Odds at 56% — Most Liquid Geopolitical Market

The US invasion of Iran market is the most traded geopolitical contract at $232K daily volume, sitting at a striking 56% probability. Meanwhile, Iran regime fall odds are at 27% and nuclear deal odds at 39%. These markets collectively suggest the Middle East is at a critical inflection point with major commodity implications.

Oil Spikes 12% — Biggest Commodity Move Signals Macro Stress

USO surged nearly 12% in a single session, a massive outlier move. With VIX elevated at $33.59, gold pulling back 1.8%, and S&P barely positive (+0.12%), this oil spike amid risk-off signals suggests a supply disruption or geopolitical escalation — possibly related to the 56% US-Iran invasion odds. Fertilizer prices and recession odds are also climbing.

Fed Frozen: 98% Hold in April, But 36% Chance of Zero Cuts All Year

The April Fed meeting is essentially priced as a non-event at 98% no change. But the real story is 2026: 36% chance of zero rate cuts all year, with inflation expected above 4% (61% odds). Markets see a Fed stuck between stagflation pressures and tariff-driven price shocks. Oil's 12% daily surge only reinforces the hawkish case.

NBA Rookie of the Year Race Flips — Flagg Surges 20 Points

Cooper Flagg exploded 20 points upward to 27% for NBA Rookie of the Year while previous favorite Kon Knueppel crashed 20 points to 72%. This is the biggest single-market swing in sports today, representing a dramatic shift likely driven by recent game performance. The ROY race is suddenly competitive.

La Liga Title Race Decided — Barcelona Surges to 88%

Barcelona jumped 12 points to 88% for the La Liga title while Real Madrid collapsed 13 points to 11%. This is the biggest European football swing today, effectively ending the Spanish league race. Combined with Bayern at 99% in Bundesliga and Arsenal at 89% in the EPL, European domestic leagues are locked up early.