2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up

Democrats are heavy favorites to take the House at 85% while the Senate is a genuine coin-flip at 52-49. Democrats sweeping both chambers is at 50%, the single most likely outcome. Key battleground Senate races in Texas (55R/44D), Georgia (83D/17R), and South Carolina (80R/20D) are seeing active trading. The anti-Trump backlash thesis is being aggressively priced.